Noah Lyles and Tyreek Hill *finally* agree to race — and Tyreek is already winning

First, some warnings about the long-discussed, recently-agreed-to showdown between Noah Lyles, who has won back-to-back global gold medals at 100 metres, and Tyreek Hill, who holds the highly subjective title of the NFL’s Fastest Man.

They’re both top-tier athletes, obviously. Lyles is the third-fastest 200-metre runner in history, and has spent the last two seasons stacking up 100-metre accolades. Before he won Olympic gold in Paris, he won a world titles in 2023 in the 100 and 200.

Hill turned the NFL upside-down with his raw speed when he entered the league in 2016, but also excels thanks to skills a stopwatch can’t measure. Other players have run 4.2Something 40-yard dashes at the NFL combine, but none of them have matched Hill’s production. Through nine seasons he has totalled 11,098 receiving yards and 82 receiving touchdowns. Those are fit-him-for-a-gold-blazer numbers.

But back to the warnings…

Lyles and Hill are also world-class attention getters, and peerless thieves of sports fans’ mental bandwidth. When Lyles won the 100 metres in Paris, Hill snatched part of the spotlight be declaring he’d beat the Olympic champ. And when Letsile Tebogo won that historic 200-metre gold last summer, Lyles, the bronze medalist, reclaimed centre stage by declaring that he had competed while positive for COVID-19.

Lyles has already declared that his match race — date, location and distance, TBD — will help “keep track relevant,” which tells you the event is as much about publicity as it is about competition.

Maybe more so.

Each of these guys has a long list of sponsors to promote, which is dreary news for sports purists, and directly related to my warnings…

First… I’m not a gambling man but we’re a gambling society, and so I’m advising you not to bet on Tyreek. He will lose at any distance beyond 20 metres, and lose worse the longer this race goes.

And second… If this event turns into an infomercial dressed up as a footrace, please don’t act surprised. I’m warning you now, and will again before race day. It’s less a race than a marketing contest that Hill is already positioned to win.

How?

Because if this were about competition, Hill would do what D.K. Metcalf did in 2021, and run the 100-metre dash at a high-level track meet. He knows elite track and field works. As a teenager Hill was literally an all-world sprinter — he left the 2012 World U20 Championships with a gold in the 4×100 relay, a bronze in the 200, and a fourth-place finish in the 100.

And because Hill has an insider’s knowledge of 100-metre speed, he understands, much better than the median NFL fan or journalist does, the difference between his personal best (10.19 seconds) and Lyles’ (9.79). It’s not rounding error, and it’s not an eye blink.

In world class track, it’s an eon.

Shortening the race to 60 metres appears to help Hill. His personal best, established back in 2014, is 6.64 seconds. And he looked unstoppable in 2023, running 6.70 and demolishing a field of weekend warriors to win a national masters title.

So maybe you can see a glimmer of possibility for Tyreek in Lyles’ come-from-behind win in Paris. If Hill starts fast and Lyles starts slow, there’s a chance.

Except it’s an optical illusion.

Lyles’ 60-metre split in Paris was 6.44 seconds, two whole strides better than Tyreek on his best day, and even further ahead of the current version of Hill.

Anyone who understands sprinting — including Tyreek Hill — knows you can’t wish away that difference in speed. Even at 50 metres, this race is a whitewash. If Hill can limit the showdown to 40 yards (36 metres for the non-Americans) he’ll probably still lose, but the race will end before the gap in top-end velocity becomes apparent.

If he’s half a stride behind at the finish, he looks to mainstream sports fans like he can hang with the current World’s Fastest Man. Doesn’t matter that he would choke on Noah Lyles’ exhaust beyond 50 metres. That half-stride deficit still boosts the personal brand Hill has built on speed.

And this is also why the format matters.

Hill knows how to enter regular track meets. He found his way to Louisville to pick up that masters title in 2023. If he wants to line up against Lyles at, say, the Atlanta City Games… adidas sponsors both athletes, and could save a lane for Tyreek.

Except that setup doesn’t serve the NFL’s Fastest Man.

If (when) Hill loses a match race to Lyles, he can still make the case that nobody *else* is faster. But there’s no brand equity in entering an open 100 and getting his doors blown off by Christian Miller.

And yes, in a 100-metre race, a healthy Christian Miller beats Tyreek Hill by a zip code.

Hill knows it, even if his fans don’t. A 100-metre dash under standard conditions, he has no chance against the world champ.

At a shorter distance, at his peak, he can stay within sniffing distance of Lyles. A race that looks competitive can bolster his brand. Even if he loses, he can still still win.

But before that happens I’ll warn you, right now, again, for the third but not final time.

He will lose.

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